1

The Human Dilemma

A dilemma is a situation in which one has to choose between two or more alternatives, neither of which lead to a desirable result. Expressed more colloquially, you’re between a rock and a hard place, damned if you do and damned if you don’t. Although the word dilemma connotes that one is acutely aware of their dire circumstances, the human dilemma is being played out on a grand planetary scale in a mostly unconscious way. Many of us, for instance, are waking up to the climate dimension of our existential predicament, but the larger terrifying picture still eludes us. 

So, here is the human dilemma. If we—we being Civilization—keep doing what has brought us to this point in the human story, “the business as usual” scenario, as it is commonly referred, increasing our population, consuming natural resources, and degrading the environment more or less as we have been doing, then we will continue to destroy the biosphere (our life support system), and we will face a massive, global-scale famine, probably sometime this century. If, on the other hand, we do things differently—if, for instance, we discontinue farming in the industrially-intensive ways of the Green Revolution—crop yields will plummet and we will therefore need to convert more forests into farmland, destroying the biosphere in the process, and we will run out of arable land. Not only will the perpetual famine continue unabated, but we will likely face massive, global-scale, acute famine. Either way, humanity faces a dieback of unprecedented proportions, likely this century, far surpassing the number of deaths in the epochal 14th century black plague. 

2

Peak Civilization

A freeze frame of the present reveals a civilization at the peak of its power. Within the space of a few decades, humanity will have experienced peak population, peak oil, peak water, peak land, and perhaps even peak crop yields (where peak means something slightly different for each). Yet, even at the height of power, having taken virtual control of the biosphere and having turned the arable Earth into a vast feedlot for our species, it still has not been enough. In what amounts to the greatest perpetual famine in human history nearly a billion people daily feel the pangs of hunger, lacking the minimal bodily requirements of protein and calories; two to three billion are chronically deficient in at least one of the essential micronutrients, and are underdeveloped physically, mentally and immunologically; nine million die each year from starvation and diseases of malnourishment. For perspective, a billion is more than the total world population in 1800; three billion is more than those alive in 1950; and the nine million annual deaths rival history’s greatest famine of 1958-1962 in China.

That is, underneath Civilization’s shiny First World veneer, we note that some three billion people lack the most fundamental services expected by all living creatures as their birthright—adequate nutrition, fresh water, and a clean environment. Even at its peak, therefore, this version of Civilization has already failed almost half its citizens. 

3

Our Ersatz Saviors

An honest analysis of the likely future trajectories of Civilization and its relation to the biosphere suggest that humanity is hurtling — with only slightly awakened eyes — toward several simultaneous natural and political/economical crises. It is probable that none of the oft-advocated saviors to the human dilemma — (1) Technological Innovations, (2) Capitalism and the Growth of Economic Globalism, (3) the Demographic Transition, and (4) the Evolution of Consciousness — will deliver us from our troubles. The first three are exacerbating our predicament, and the last remains far too muted relative to the magnitude of our problems. More likely, we will continue down a path of widening bifurcation, where humans will further differentiate themselves, culturally, materially, and even biologically. 

4

The Evolution of Consciousness

The belief held by some substantial number of people is that humanity, or at least some significant portion of it, is undergoing a paradigmatic shift in consciousness. Because many of these believers are intelligent, well intentioned, and accomplished, and because there are any number of luminaries among them, this idea warrants our attention. So, let’s honestly examine the notions of evolution, progress, consciousness, collective consciousness, complexity, and why they matter, and let’s explore the view that this hypothetical shift in our collective consciousness will save Civilization from its predicament—that is, the twinned crises of ecology and economy, which many of us interpret to be the consequences of Civilization’s dominant paradigm, a paradigm that does indeed need shifting if Civilization is to continue. We also want to honestly explore the approaches that have been suggested for facilitating the raising of awareness, both individually and collectively, and the numerous obstacles that have presented themselves along the way. 

Before we can proceed, we — each and every one of us — must acknowledge a major obstacle to our evolution, namely our sense of exceptionalism: the tacit belief that, unlike most everyone else, we actually do know what is best for the world. Honest exploration, however, requires us to lay aside our most cherished worldviews, be they materialistic science or idealistic spiritualism, New Age, New Physics, holism, humanism, free market capitalism, socialism, whatever. Our belief system is the box that we will have to “think” ourselves out of. As the saying goes (often attributed erroneously to Albert Einstein): “Problems cannot be solved with the same mindset that created them.” This is central to the human dilemma, the condition in which we now find ourselves, where we must change our living paradigm to survive, and to change means to perhaps abandon all that we have known and want. Perhaps. It will certainly mean having to be willing to abandon. Until we live within a sustainable society (and even regenerative society for at least decades, perhaps centuries to come), we won’t know what we must truly give up, what we must truly embrace. Until then, all will remain theoretical. What a dilemma. 

5

Nature's Signals

Humanity’s relationship with the Earth is, by definition, not sustainable. We cannot continue devouring and destroying the life-supporting resources of this finite planet any more than a cancer can grow forever at the expense of its host. At some point, systems break down. This is no longer hypothetical. Critical planetary systems—the biosphere, atmosphere, cryosphere, and hydrosphere—are showing unequivocal signs of strain. The cryosphere is melting away before our eyes, as the oceans and atmosphere heat up and turn volatile, and the biosphere informs us with the die-offs, extinctions, and the emptying skies and seas that it is unraveling, its complexity of creatures great and small being replaced by the simpler ecosystems of a more primordial Earth. It’s as if Earth were signaling to us with increasing urgency that we have transgressed the thresholds for salubrious co-existence

We are likely approaching a crisis for the Civilization project. The term “crisis” in all its conventions—whether medical, psychological, or in common usage—indicates a turning point for the system in question, a threshold moment that determines whether the system will recover or deteriorate further towards its end.

Clearly, the human species possesses extraordinary power to impact its environment, and we also have the remarkable ability to reflect upon our impact and to change our behaviors. Paying attention is key. It is the important first step.

To determine whether we are at a crisis point and to be clear about our options, we need to have clarity about the problems. For this reason, let us honestly face the human dilemma. Let us pay attention. Let’s clearly review those specific markers that will directly impact humanity, not because they are necessarily the most important on the planetary scale, but because we are still incorrigibly human-centric. Our foremost concern is ourselves—I, me, mine is the mantra of our lives. Next comes our children and loved ones. And then, when we are at our best, perhaps we are concerned for some larger slice of humanity.  Even then, rarely do our concerns extend to all our human family or to future generations or to all the other species in our larger, extended family (whose health our existence depends).

6

Radical Awakening 

When we pay attention, however, we may find that our health depends on the health of all the Earth, that what is good for our individual body and mind is also good for the Earth, and vice versa. We may. And this awareness may lead us to a more inclusive consciousness, a biopheric or even cosmic consciousness, as some have referred to it, where “I”—and humanity as an extension—is no longer the unique cosmic center. When one considers that each one of us still has difficulty with even accepting all humans as truly equal and deserving of our love, esteem, and shared material wealth—whether the distinction is based on sex, color, ethnicity, religion, age, nation, class, education, criminal record, intelligence, beauty, status, political belief, etc.—we see how mired we still are in trying to solve old and outdated problems, when far larger crises are looming. We are like adolescents trying to make it in an adult world.

My intention is, as Thomas Berry suggested, “to fix our minds on the magnitude of the task before us,” not to paralyze us, but rather to motivate us to the appropriate level of commitment, so that we may act and serve wisely. The assumption here is that right action is based on right awareness. To access right awareness requires us to surrender our beliefs, the ornamentations of our existence, and to willingly delve to the root and ground of our being. That, by definition, is being radical. Neither optimism nor pessimism is in order. The glass is both half empty and half full. Let us not delude ourselves.

7

Dieback and Collapse

Dieback refers to a population crash, to a pruning back of human numbers. Dieback does not mean extinction.  To anthropomorphize Nature for a moment, dieback is one (coercive) way that Nature employs to bring species with runaway populations and consumption back into homeo-dynamic harmony with the rest of the environment. Humanity will likely continue for millions of years yet, but with greatly attenuated numbers living more harmoniously with the Earth. The term Collapse suggests a breakdown and fragmentation of global Civilization into smaller, less complex states, alliances, and all manner of stateless societies. The end result—the societies we build and the ways we will live—may be far different and even far better than what we now have. However, the path of breakdown will surely be painful.

Societies and “civilizations” have come and gone, and the drivers of their evolution and the causes of their demise are many, and for most of them, mysterious; that is, our archaeological tools are still insufficient to clarify their stories through the hazy film of time. What does seem clear is that overpopulation, over-consumption, and degradation of arable land are common to many of their stories, including those of history’s paragons, the Mesopotamian, Indus Valley, Roman, and Mayan civilizations. Also clear is the significant role that societies have played in their own demise. Inequality, entrenched interests, and complex institutions made societies rigid and unwieldy when challenges demanded flexibility. 

So what will a 21st century dieback and collapse look like?  Will it be a neo-Malthusian nightmare of famine, war, and epidemics, much like the collapses of dozens of previous civilizations and societies?  Or will it proceed more as an intensification of present circumstances, where half the human world suffers nearly invisibly, despite YouTube ubiquity, while the other half struggles to gather and maintain its wealth, building higher fences, amplifying technology, and excusing greater social pathology? This, too, we will explore.