Population Crash: Prospects for Famine in the Twenty-First Century

In: Carleton Schade and David Pimentel (2010) Environment, Development and Sustainability; 12(2): 245-262.

Abstract: For centuries famine arose as a seemingly endless series of acute, regional and unanticipated events; it has transformed into a phenomenon, global in scale and continuous in nature. Half the world’s human population perpetually suffers some form of malnourishment, from either a scarcity of calories, protein or micronutrients or from a combination of these. Sheer population size has rendered the scale of suffering unprecedented. Perpetual famine has emerged during an era of abundant and relatively inexpensive soil, water and energy resources, improving crop yields, and a benign climate. However, the twentieth century trends of resource degradation, diminishing growth in crop yields and a warming atmosphere will likely continue, latently and perhaps synergistically impacting agricultural production, and therefore, threatening food security in the twenty-first century. Assuming some proportional relationship between food security and these resources, famine is here projected to greatly increase in the coming decades, severely impacting billions of people.