Global Food Shortages Now
“The tightest world grain stocks in about 30 years are contributing to rising food inflation, fueling worries about food shortages in some countries and straining international aid budgets.” From USA Today, Oct. 16, 2007.
“Oil prices surged to a new record of $89 a barrel Wednesday after Turkey’s parliament authorized an incursion into northern Iraq in search of Kurdish rebels.” From MSNBC, Oct. 17, 2007.
Many water-scarce countries-- such as Egypt, Mexico, Pakistan, Algeria, Iran -- have been importing grain rather than meeting their needs through increased irrigation, as it takes about 1000 tons of water to produce 1 ton of grain. Higher grain and oil prices will hit these countries hard, and the poorest hardest, of course. According to Lester Brown at the Earth Policy Institute, “Overall, the water required to produce the grain and other farm products imported into the Middle East and North Africa last year equaled the annual flow of the Nile River at Aswan. In effect, the region’s water deficit can be thought of as another Nile flowing into the region in the form of imported grain.”
World grain stocks have been steadily dropping since 1999 from 116 days to 57 days in 2006, according to Earth Policy Institute’s compilation of USDA data. This means that for seven years running we have consumed more grain globally than we grew. Most of our calories and protein come either directly from grain consumption or from animals that were grain fed.
Worldwide, an additional 74 million people must be fed each year, further straining already diminishing land, water and oil resources. Although the world’s farmers have been able to keep up with demand, the world grain production per person has been dropping since 1984 and has returned to 1970 levels, during early Green Revolution years.
Farming have not yet gravely felt the effects of aquifer draw-down, desertification and global warming. However, China has imported more grain than it has exported since 2004, and, because of the depletion of the Ogallala aquifer, farmers in Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas have returned to lower-yield rain-fed crops.
Conclusion: Population, consumption and expectations for increased consumption are all rising. Water, land and fossil fuel resources are either degrading or diminishing. Climate has remained relatively benign. However, the specter of global warming effects looms. Food production has been below consumption, and world grain stocks have declined. We’re already walking the tightrope, and we’re still early into the century.
